研究公众舆论如何随着时间的推移而变化，有利于解释如今在社交网络上观察到的信息传播现象，也为舆情引导提供重要的思路。本文受沉默的螺旋理论启发，针对人们在表达观点时对外界观点的敏感性，引入“意见气候”这一参数，提出了一个新的基于意见气候的Hegselmann–Krause观点动力学模型。该模型以HK模型为基础，细化了观点更新主体，通过统计持积极观点、持消极观点和中立观点的个体数量，拓展了观点更新规则，增加了意见气候的影响。最后，通过在人工生成和真实网络数据集上的仿真实验验证了该模型的有效性。

Understanding how public opinion changes over time can help explain the communication phenomena we observed on modern social networks and provide important ideas for guiding public opinion. Inspired by the spiral of silence theory, this paper proposes a novel opinion climate-based Hegselmann–Krause dynamics model. In this model, the number of agents with positive, negative and neutral opinions are determined and opinion climate is considered as a criterion for the evolution of public opinions. Extensive experiments on artificially generated and real network datasets validate the effectiveness of this model.